Top Trade Idea for July 11, 2013 – AUD/NZD

Selling into the AUD strength against the NZD In an effort to avoid the post-Bernanke chaos in the dollar and euro, I am looking a pair where there is both a stable, overall trend, and a lessened impact from the volatility of Bernanke’s statement: “Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed [...]

Chart of the Day for July 12th, 2013 – AUD/USD

By Ilya Spivak

Prices are testing support at 0.9035, the July 3 low, with a break beneath that eyeing the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8889. Falling channel resistance is at 0.9184, with a reversal above that targeting the 23.6% Fib retracement at 0.9400.

top trade idea for july , 2013 AUD/NZD

Selling into the AUD strength against the NZD

In an effort to avoid the post-Bernanke chaos in the dollar and euro, I am looking a pair where there is both a stable, overall trend, and a lessened impact from the volatility of Bernanke’s statement: “Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed in the U.S. economy.”

That brings to a currency that has continued to fuel the trends that I have traded for the past few months* and that is the AUD. The Australian dollar did gain against the U.S. dollar after Bernanke’s dovish Q&A yesterday late-afternoon. But to say that the move was based on the aussie as the driver would be wrong. In fairness to the aussie, while the initial move higher in the AUD/USD was based on USD weakness, the Employment Change release did show that the aussie economy added 10k more jobs than expected (10.3k actual versus 0.3k consensus)

*Admittedly, this is still a longer-term time frame commitment and for some traders – especially during the Summer months – this is an uncomfortable time frame considering the volatile nature of this time of year. For traders that would prefer staying nimble here’s a video I recorded on “When it’s time to “retreat” to shorter time frames”

One of the reasons I am looking to the AUD/NZD is of course sidestepping the U.S. dollar. While I am certainly not saying that the SCOPE and VELOCITY of the move is a surprise, volatility and exhaustion under 85.00 in a market that had not yet transitioned into an established uptrend IS expected. I also like the established bearish Directional Bias (aka a quality daily trend) on the pair. The chances that the AUD will gain on the NZD longer-term is low and this is punctuated by NZ FinMin Bill English’s comments that: “New Zealanders think they are going to have 5 percent rates forever…well they aren’t. They are going to go up, it’s just a matter of when.”
The average price hourly price movement range for the AUD/NZD does put the aggro 1.1745 short sell within reach so this entry has what I call “proximity” in that when parking a limit sell at this level there can be a realistic expectations of getting the trade filled. It’s the conservative 1.1795 entry that may take more time to be reached.

The Point of Validity (”POV”) stop-loss on the trade is 1.1920/30 but a Cheated-In stop loss (”CISL”) at 1.1860 is a smarter way to handle this trend. Look to support at 1.1660 for an initial profit target where I would recommend ratcheting in the CISL to a “Break Even” stop loss to just above the conservative entry which would put it at 1.1805/20 to be able to benefit from the major psychological level resistance and the selling pressure that will likely be waiting there.

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WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2009

Dealing With Online Forex Brokers

Can play online for competitive advantage Forex Broker in forex online trading. They are a valuable asset, especially if you want high bets in the game forex trading. Because the brokers considered in currencies on the market and there are some misconceptions that were also made around him. To increase the industry, with the time to straighten out some of the misunderstandings, and for each person. The truth behind the trade corridors Most times, we certainly have our own good when we receive the services online forex brokers. The tendency is to believe we that we are in the hands of experts so all we need do is sit back and relax, because they are all the work we need. Therefore, when things are not as we expect from them, tend to put all the blame on the broker. Sometimes I feel cheated even pay anything. But the truth is that we are responsible for their losses. All forex brokers are aware that the commercial sector, there is loss of 95%, but a common cause. Therefore, they look well on a majority of the trading day needs. Currency change is very dynamic and at the end of the day, the riders that you once. The hand is still making all important decisions and not my agent. Featured Broker and make One of the particular features of most foreign exchange traders used to provide leverage. Enjoy all the benefits promised but you have Forex broker. Some even go so far as to 300:1, and unfortunately some people in the trap. Truth is the maximum 20:1-runner process and can assure you. It is easy to think they are considering different methods of trading, but at the end of the day, remember that these people also agents. You can only cover so much and also take it that can not only to take into account clients. Listen to your Forex Broker Can be one of the big business of forex broker, you can enter as an additional advantage is the word of advice. Over all if you are enjoying new to the game. But the thing is, do not swallow all your advice broker. Online Forex brokers are committed to help, most likely, but should never be dealt with, since the course of its business. At day end, must still be listening to instincts, and instincts. In addition, you should not buy more things for the broker will tell you the context of the work. As far as possible, keep your relationship on a professional level.

forex trading basics

1. • The type of currency you are spending, or getting rid of, is the base currency. The currency that you are purchasing is called quote currency. In forex trading, you sell 1 type of currency to purchase another type.
   • The exchange rate tells you how much you have to spend in quote currency to purchase base currency. For example, if you want to purchase some U.S. dollars using British pounds, you may see an exchange rate that looks like this: GBP/USD=1.589. This rate means that you'll spend 1.589 dollars for 1 British pound.
   • A long position means that you want to buy the base currency and sell the quote currency. In our example above, you would want to sell U.S. dollars to purchase British pounds.
   • A short position means that you want to buy quote currency and sell base currency. In other words, you would spend sell British pounds and purchase U.S. dollars.
   • The bid price is the price at which your broker is willing to buy base currency in exchange for quote currency. The bid is the best price at which you are willing to sellyour quote currency on the market.
   • The ask price, or the offer price, is the price at which your broker will sell base currency in exchange for quote currency. The ask price is the best available price at which you are willing to buy from the market.
   • A spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price.[1]
2. 2
   Read a forex quote. You'll see 2 numbers on a forex quote: the bid price on the left and the ask price on the right.
3. 3
   Decide what currency you want to buy and sell.
   • Make predictions about the economy. If you believe that the U.S. economy will continue to weaken, which is bad for the U.S. dollar, then you probably want to sell dollars in exchange for a currency from a country where the economy is strong.
   • Look at a country's trading position. If a country has many goods that are in demand, then the country will likely export many goods to make money. This trading advantage will boost the country's economy, thus boosting the value of its currency.
   • Consider politics. If a country is having an election, then the country's currency will appreciate if the winner of the election has a fiscally responsible agenda. Also, if the government of a country loosens regulations for economic growth, the currency is likely to increase in value.
   • Read economic reports. Reports on a country's GDP, for instance, or reports about other economic factors like employment and inflation, will have an effect on the value of the country's currency.[2]
4. 4
   Learn how to calculate profits.
   • A pip measures the change in value between 2 currencies. Usually, 1 pip equals 0.0001 of a change in value. For example, if your EUR/USD trade moves from 1.546 to 1.547, your currency value has increased by 1 pip.
   • Multiply the number of pips that your account has changed by the exchange rate. This calculation will tell you how much your account has increased or decreased in value.[3]

Part 2: Open an Online Forex Brokerage Account

1. 1
   Research different brokerages. Take these factors into consideration when choosing your brokerage:
   • Look for someone who has been in the industry for 10 years or more. Experience indicates that the company knows what it's doing and knows how to take care of clients.
   • Check to see that the brokerage is regulated by a major oversight body. If your broker voluntarily submits to government oversight, then you can feel reassured about your broker's honesty and transparency. Some oversight bodies include:
     • United States: National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
     • United Kingdom: Financial Services Authority (FSA)
     • Australia: Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC)
     • Switzerland: Swiss Federal Banking Commission (SFBC)
     • Germany: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFIN)
     • France: Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF)
   • See how many products the broker offers. If the broker also trades securities and commodities, for instance, then you know that the broker has a bigger client base and a wider business reach.
   • Read reviews but be careful. Sometimes, unscrupulous brokers will go into review sites and write reviews to boost their reputations. Reviews can give you a flavor for a broker, but you should always take them with a grain of salt.
   • Visit the broker's website. The website should look professional, and links should be active. If the website says something like "Coming Soon!" or otherwise looks unprofessional, then steer clear of that broker.
   • Check on transaction costs for each trade. You should also check to see how much your bank will charge to wire money into your forex account.
   • Focus on the essentials. You need good customer support, easy transactions and transparency. You should also gravitate toward brokers who have a good reputation.[4]
2. 2
   Request information about opening an account. You can open a personal account or you can choose a managed account. With a personal account, you can execute your own trades. With a managed account, your broker will execute trades for you.
3. 3
   Fill out the appropriate paperwork. You can ask for the paperwork by mail or download it, usually in the form of a PDF file. Make sure to check the costs of transferring cash from your bank account into your brokerage account. The fees can cut into your profits.
4. 4
   Activate your account. Usually, the broker will send you an email containing a link to activate your account. Click the link and follow the instructions to get started with trading.[5]

Part 3: Start Trading

1. 1
   Analyze the market. You can try several different methods:
   • Technical analysis: Technical analysis involves reviewing charts or historical data to predict how the currency will move based on past events. You can usually obtain charts from your broker or use a popular platform like Metatrader 4.
   • Fundamental analysis: This type of analysis involves looking at a country's economic fundamentals and using this information to influence your trading decisions.
   • Sentiment analysis: This kind of analysis is largely subjective. Essentially, you try to analyze the mood of the market to figure out if it's "bearish" or "bullish." While you can't always put your finger on market sentiment, you can often make a good guess that can influence your trades.[6]
2. 2
   Determine your margin. Depending on your broker's policies, you can invest a little bit of money but still make big trades.
   • For example, if you want to trade 100,000 units at a margin of 1 percent, your broker will require you to put $1,000 cash in an account as security.
   • Your gains and losses will either add to the account or deduct from its value. For this reason, a good general rule is to invest only 2 percent of your cash in a particular currency pair.
3. 3
   Place your order. You can place different kinds of orders:
   • Market orders: With a market order, you instruct your broker to execute your buy/sell at the current market rate.
   • Limit orders: These orders instruct your broker to execute a trade at a specific price. For instance, you can buy currency when it reaches a certain price or sell currency if it lowers to a particular price.
   • Stop orders: A stop order is a choice to buy currency above the current market price (in anticipation that its value will increase) or to sell currency below the current market price to cut your losses.[7]
4. 4
   Watch your profit and loss. Above all, don't get emotional. The forex market is volatile, and you will see a lot of ups and downs. What matters is to continue doing your research and sticking with your strategy. Eventually, you will see profits.